Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Aftermath of Jonas Part 2

There’s less than 50% chance of anything happening tonight, but even so, the temperatures are just below freezing, so I don’t see refreezing as being significant.  Offices were open today, so I highly doubt there will be any cancellations (for PV). I’ll give it 50-50 odds between delay/regular schedule, but will put my imaginary money on NO DELAY TOMORROW. 

Monday, January 25, 2016

1/25/16 - Aftermath of Jonas

Anyone else get thundersnow????
Ok, so another lesson learned – don’t make predictions 5 days ahead of time.  The storm will always change, and this time it was way more intense than expected. The next two days are pretty complicated, however, due to many factors: Schools are only getting cleared out today (and I know our maintenance crew is hard at work out there – thank you!); Gap got 30”; some roads in Lancaster aren’t even plowed, or shoveled, or looked at, yet; melting snow today; 26˚ low tonight (refreezing); rain Tuesday possible, but a low overnight close to freezing (salt can do its job).  Ugh.  I think it’s just a big mess, so I’m going to predict NO SCHOOL TUESDAY.  We might be able to get in (assuming our city folk have snowshoes and/or a nice neighbor who will pick them up for school), but I don’t think they want to risk it.  65-35 odds.  I’m thinking a two-hour delay on Wednesday right now, but will confirm tomorrow, given the chance of flurries overnight.

Thursday, January 21, 2016

1/21/16 - Blizzapocalypsageddon Jonas

The storm will come too late to actually have any effect on Friday, so NO Early Dismissal on Friday.  Monday though….could there be a delay?  I think so, with 60-40 odds.  Yes, Sunday will be partly sunny and there will be a whole day to clean up the mess, but it is one BIG mess, and back roads tend to be forgotten (or at least last on the list) in many cases.  Additionally, the possible blizzard conditions will make blowing snow an issue, especially on PV’s back farm roads, though winds will be lower (but not zero) on Sunday night.  If we get more than a foot, definitely a delay.  Less than a foot? Not as likely.  I’ll predict now (5 days out? I never do this) that there will be a 2-HOUR DELAY ON MONDAY. 

Here's a good map from Millersville:

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

6 year review

As we start wishing and hoping for snow and cancellations (while also hoping everyone stays safe), it's entertaining to look back on previous years.  Here's a review of the last 6 winters' opportunities (chances), delays, closings, early dismissals, and my record, along with a few notable notes. 

This winter will be influenced by a strong El Nino, with 09-10 being similar, although a moderate El Nino. With a 60˚ Christmas, who knows what we'll get this year.

Winter 09-10
            Two big storms in a row bringing about a foot and a half each, the second cancelling three days of school (W-F) being a blizzard.
Delays: 4
            Closings: 4 (one on a SMUD)
            Early Dismissals: 1
            Chances: 19
            My record: 13-6

Winter 2010-2011
Delays: 5
            Closings: 4
            Early Dismissals: 1
            Chances: 16
            My record: 13-3

Winter 2011-2012
Delays: 1
            Closings: 0+1(flood)
            Early Dismissals: 0
            Chances: 9
            My record: 6-3

Winter 2012-2013
Delays: 0 (+1 – Flooding 1/31)
            Closings: 1 for rain that was predicted to be snow (+2 - Hurricane Sandy, not included in My record)
            Early Dismissals: 0
            Chances: 13
            My record: 8-5
            Overall, an interesting year, considering all of our events were for rain, although there were about 5 weeks in a row where significant snow fell on Friday evenings.

Winter 2013-2014
Delays: 6
            Closings: 6 (5 for snow, 1 for Wind Chill)
            Early Dismissals:  (1 for rain in October, not in record)
            Chances: 26
            My record: 18-8

Winter 2014-2015
Delays: 8
            Closings: 1
            Early Dismissals: 1    
            Chances: 28
            My record: 15-13


Monday, January 11, 2016

For 1/12, 1/13

First threat of snow of the year and it's.....not going to be much, or very likely. I'm thinking it will pretty much just be some flurries, if anything.  So... No early dismissals or delays.  Just too little chance and too little predicted.  Wait until this weekend…