NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

Current Record: 0-0 Prediction:  I was thinking CLOSING for a couple of days now, given that it was meant to be substantial snow fall (2 or 3 inches) and would continue snowing past noon, during the morning commute.  However, the predictions have been trending lower.  I guarantee at LEAST a delay.  They might even call a delay tonight.  It’ll likely be gameday decision tomorrow morning, but I think I’m leaning on CLOSING tomorrow being more likely.  Why?  Timing is bad.  Temperatures will be low.  We should consider our staff come from all over the county.  Freezing Rain is being thrown around in some forecasts.  I wouldn’t be surprised if people in the valley end up thinking, “we could have gone in”, but I think the roads north of us and in the mountains will make a good case for the closing.   Final Prediction: Closed Schools Tuesday, but don't turn off your alarms altogether.  Here's the background research: Winter...

 Current Record: 6-1 Prediction:  Welp, things have settled in a bit since yesterday, and I’ve got news that’s probably disappointing to some: Tuesday’s prediction remains the same: Tuesday : Normal day (it’s starting too late to guarantee an early dismissal, and would just be snow) Wednesday’s prediction changes… Wednesday : Just a delay .  1-3 inches overnight is a pretty standard case for a delay. Not guaranteed, but real good.  Typically at least an inch will grant us a delay.  The…unfortunate?...part is that what I was seeing yesterday with additional snow/freezing rain during the day on Wed just isn’t showing up anymore, so I think we’ll be in the clear to come in 2 hours late.  Thursday’s prediction changes as well… Thursday : NO delay .  It’s still possible, given the precipitation overnight and analysis from yesterday (The wintry precipitation will be done, however, regular rain won’t just wash away ice, sleet, and snow, especially in sub-fre...

Current Record: 6-1 Preliminary prediction:   Tuesday : Normal day (it’s starting too late to guarantee an early dismissal, and would just be snow) Wednesday : CANCELLATION .  1-3 inches overnight isn’t enough to close, however, there will be more snow and possibly freezing rain during the day, and nobody wants to drive a bus of kids in that.   Thursday : 2-hour delay.   The wintry precipitation will be done, however, regular rain won’t just wash away ice, sleet, and snow, especially in sub-freezing temperatures that are predicted Some of the data I'm working with:  

Current Record: 5-1 Prediction:  After that surprise delay on Monday, we’re back at it!   Yeah, we’re all thinking/hoping for a delay for Thursday, but I’m predicting a CLOSING on Thursday.  It’d be super cool (HA!) if the freezing rain stops by 9 or 10am, as predicted, but that won’t be enough time to actually clear the roads, especially after seeing up to 1” of sleet is possible in some areas.  I think in order for us to have just a delay, the storm will need to underperform and just rain starting at 7am, clearing the roads in an obvious way such that the back roads would be “fine”, which feels very unlikely. Here's some of the data I'm working with:

 Current Record: 4-0 Prediction:  90% confidence – Calling for NO DELAY tomorrow.  It’ll still be cold, but not -10˚ wind chills.  In fact, the real feel is looking like 5˚.  Also, the roads got much better than expected over yesterday, so I don’t think we can really count that as an issue. Overall, very certain NO DELAY on Thursday.  Hopefully this warmer weather doesn’t tempt our middle schoolers to wear shorts and a t-shirt to the bus stop. That would be totally ohio of them.

Current Record: 3-0 Prediction:  It’s a toss-up.  We usually don’t get 2 delays in a row. Roads might improve a little bit today. -10 wind chills have not closed or delayed schools in the past. But…we are under a cold weather advisory and wind chills will be 5˚ colder than today.  Roads won’t improve much.  If we’re looking for consistency, I think a delay will happen.  If we’re thinking that people are more prepared this time around, we won’t have a delay.  I’m going to reluctantly predict a DELAY WEDNESDAY .  I’m comfortable either way, but I think a delay will likely be appreciated by parents, especially those of elementary kiddos.