NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

 Welp! We got the 2 snow days!!! The roads look pretty ok right now, which made me think that MAYBE we wouldn't need a delay Wednesday.  However there is a Cold Weather Advisory for Wednesday morning calling for cold wind chills 10 to 15 below zero.  We've delayed for this in the past, and it's right after a snow day.  Hence, I believe we will have a 2-hour delay tomorrow.  Stay tuned for possible delays due to the cold, as Thursday and Friday like they have similar or colder "feels like" temperatures. 

Current Record: 4-2 Prediction:   LOTS to think about here, but there are some obvious answers.  Main (preliminary) prediction is: Monday: No School Tuesday: No School Wednesday: at least a 2-hour delay, betting on Delay Thursday: Maybe a delay, but betting No Delay Friday: Back to normal Why?  Well…It’s really looking like we’ll get about 12 inches of snow, and back in 2017 we had a similar storm and had 2 closings and a delay.  People will need time to dig out of a foot of snow. 2 days of plowing should be enough time to get it all cleared, but we typically have a delay after a closing, and it will be pretty cold. But what would change this outcome?  Many factors: Drifting snow:  This system will produce a lighter/fluffier snow for most areas, with a transition to heavier snow consistency and increasing wind Sunday afternoon onward.  This means winds will continue to drift the snow across the roads by farm fields for a couple days, though it’s b...

 Current Record: 3-2 Prediction:  Well, that caught me by surprise!  We’ve never had a delay due to temperatures (even realfeels) above 0˚. In the past, it’s been -20 wind chill would close, -15 would delay.  We got down to about 9˚ with a realfeel of 0˚ish.  Tomorrow morning will be 8˚ with a realfeel of 2˚.   Now, if we’re assuming consistency, we will also have a delay tomorrow (though drifting snow will definitely NOT be an issue) If we’re going with the argument from “Come ooooooonnnnnn” ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ , then I think we’ll have regular school tomorrow.  So, while I usually avoid the logical fallacy of “Oh, come ooooooon”, I’m going with NO DELAY TOMORROW. We all know how cold it is, roads will be fine, and we’re not coming back from a 4 day weekend anymore.  Still only 50/50 odds though. 

Prediction:  I’m going to bet on NO DELAY tomorrow.  As of now, nobody is calling for even 1 inch, the temperatures are hovering around freezing, and the roads can be salted.  3:1 odds.  Still a possibility of enough snow for a delay.  That would be disappointing though, since the early dismissal would turn into a regular dismissal time day (with a delay). Fingers crossed.

Current Record: 0-0 Prediction:  I was thinking CLOSING for a couple of days now, given that it was meant to be substantial snow fall (2 or 3 inches) and would continue snowing past noon, during the morning commute.  However, the predictions have been trending lower.  I guarantee at LEAST a delay.  They might even call a delay tonight.  It’ll likely be gameday decision tomorrow morning, but I think I’m leaning on CLOSING tomorrow being more likely.  Why?  Timing is bad.  Temperatures will be low.  We should consider our staff come from all over the county.  Freezing Rain is being thrown around in some forecasts.  I wouldn’t be surprised if people in the valley end up thinking, “we could have gone in”, but I think the roads north of us and in the mountains will make a good case for the closing.   Final Prediction: Closed Schools Tuesday, but don't turn off your alarms altogether.  Here's the background research: Winter...

 Current Record: 6-1 Prediction:  Welp, things have settled in a bit since yesterday, and I’ve got news that’s probably disappointing to some: Tuesday’s prediction remains the same: Tuesday : Normal day (it’s starting too late to guarantee an early dismissal, and would just be snow) Wednesday’s prediction changes… Wednesday : Just a delay .  1-3 inches overnight is a pretty standard case for a delay. Not guaranteed, but real good.  Typically at least an inch will grant us a delay.  The…unfortunate?...part is that what I was seeing yesterday with additional snow/freezing rain during the day on Wed just isn’t showing up anymore, so I think we’ll be in the clear to come in 2 hours late.  Thursday’s prediction changes as well… Thursday : NO delay .  It’s still possible, given the precipitation overnight and analysis from yesterday (The wintry precipitation will be done, however, regular rain won’t just wash away ice, sleet, and snow, especially in sub-fre...