Messy Wednesday? Possibly, but...

I’ll stick with yesterday’s prediction of no changes in school schedules…the predictions are varying quite widely from just rain to up to 5” of snow.  I’m looking again at the temperature not dropping below freezing as well as the less than 100% chance of precipitation and saying that the roads will be fine for the duration of the day, especially when treated.  There’s still a chance of an early dismissal if the storm really comes at us, but I’m not expecting it.

2 day mess?

With temperatures above freezing and lower likelihoods of precipitation, I’m calling No delays or cancellations on neither Tuesday nor Wednesday. I might stop back tomorrow with a new prediction for Wednesday, but we'll see.

At LEAST an early dismissal tomorrow

This one it’s all about the timing. Most predictions are giving us enough snow to cancel school if the snow is falling throughout the school day, but some begin Tuesday night while others don’t start until 10am on Wednesday, giving us enough time to get students into school and dismiss early.  The call will likely be made in the morning: if they see snow, we’ll close; if no snow, we’ll come in. Temperatures will be warmer, so the roads should be fine if it’s not falling too fast.  Overall, I’m looking at a 50/50 shot between school cancellation and an early dismissal.  Given multiple scenarios, I’m going to predict that Pequea Valley will cancel school tomorrow early in the morning in an abundance of caution, though they may not need to (I’ve switched 4 times since I started writing this).  I’d rather call for an early dismissal, but I only see that happening if the storm COMPLETELY weakens and comes late, with nothing on the ground come 5am.

Winter Weather is OVER!

There's no such thing as a jinx, so I'm comfortable saying it...
Here's a summary of the 2013-2014 Winter Weather (in Pequea Valley)

Winter 2013-2014

Delays: 6

            Closings: 6 (5 for snow, 1 for Wind Chill)

            Early Dismissals: 0 (1 for rain in October, ignored for record)

            Chances: 26

            My record: 18-8

I'll take it!   A 69% success rate in predicting uncertain human behaviors in response to fairly (un)predictable weather predictions works for me.  This is by far the most chances (the second highest was 09-10 where we had 19 chances).  It was the first winter where Wind Chill was a consideration.  We also had the most closings in the past 5 years, after two years without a true snow day.  I'm guessing next year will be milder.  Only one way to find out!

Spring Storm?

No delays or cancellations or dismissals on Tuesday or Wednesday.  It looks like it may or may not snow, but it probably won’t stick even if it does.

Marching Lions (just playing on others' titles)

Looking at the timing of the storm and the (relative) consistency in predictions, I’m pretty confident in predicting SCHOOL CANCELLED MONDAY.  That’s what will indeed happen if today’s predictions hold true through the weekend.  It’s looking like we’ll get about 6” of snow, with some sleet/rain mixed in.  I will still allow myself the normal ability to make a last prediction late Saturday/Early Sunday.  I will also predict for Tuesday at that point.

This week - flurries most likely

I predict

NO DELAYS, CLOSINGS, OR DISMISSALS THIS WEEK.

Freezing rain?

There is a freezing rain advisory tomorrow morning, however I don't think it will impact school travel much. I'll predict NO DELAY TOMORROW. So far I'm 15-6. The most predictions I've made in a winter so far.

Tuesday

Trouble with this one.  A couple years ago, I’d say simply a delay.  However, more recently I think we’ve been cancelling school a little more often than we “should” – in quotes because it’s not really a judgment.  On the other other hand, we’re desperate to not cancel school... This will definitely be a morning decision.  I can guarantee at least a two-hour delay.  In fact, I think I’ll predict a TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they cancel.

Nor'easter

So yesterday I predicted that Thursday school would be cancelled and I’m wondering why it took me so long to call this one today: NO SCHOOL ON FRIDAY.  I know the schools are desperate not to have more snow days added on to the end of the year (Pequea’s already had 6 cancellations), but with at least 8 inches being the consistent low-ball estimate and there already being lots of snow on the roads that hasn’t even come close to melting away, it will be nearly impossible to get the roads ready for school travel.  By the way, thank your local PennDOT person for plowing the roads all the way to the grass so as to leave room for the upcoming snowfall.  Brilliant!

No school Thursday - but what about Friday?

No School Thursday – The storm will happen all school day, making travel impermissible by school districts.  What about Friday?  I’m almost sold that we will be out on Friday as well, especially if the snow lasts into Thursday night…Will officially predict Friday’s result tomorrow.

Post-ice delay?

Not likely.  Although the snow is melting and we will get down to 20˚ overnight, the roads are mostly clear, so I'm predicting NO DELAY TOMORROW.  But be careful!!!  There will be spots where the snow melted to form puddles that freeze overnight and are unable to be salted enough to melt completely.  DRIVE CAREFULLY SENIORS AND JUNIORS!  Give yourself some extra time in the am.

Yeah...No school tomorrow

That's it.  No elaboration.  No school tomorrow

Two-Hour Delay tomorrow

That's the prediction...no details.  It's possible they'll cancel, but I think they've had plenty of time to plow.

No school tomorrow?

Lots of uncertainty with this storm. However, I think the timing (during the school day) will prevent anyone from getting us in if there’s anything on the ground in the morning.  There’s a part of me that’s thinking that if there’s only rain, they’ll send the busses out and get everyone in to school, but another part of me says that’s silly considering the massive amounts of snow they’re predicting to fall during the day.  They won’t risk it.  Therefore, NO SCHOOL TOMORROW, but be prepared in case they feel like “getting a day in” by sending everyone in the morning

Another wind chill day?

The wind chill will not be as bad as last time, but the NWS has issued a wind chill advisory effective until 10am saying stuff like “POTENTIAL FOR HYPOTHERMIA AND FROST BITE TO   UNPROTECTED SKIN IN JUST A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME”.  They won’t cancel school, but they might delay.  I’m giving 50/50 chances, since the weather is similar to the day after the wind chill cancellation, where we didn’t cancel, but there also wasn’t a wind chill advisory (that I remember or have the time to verify).  Hence, I will reluctantly predict a TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow.

Delay tomorrow? unlikely

While it is somewhat traditional to have 2 hour delays after closings, I think with the sun being out today and plenty of time to clean up, there will be NO DELAY TOMORROW.

Revision

Given the large amount of light, fluffy, blowable-onto-roads snow, blowing winds, and –15 wind chill, I'm calling no school for Pequea. And if you think this is a late call, you'd be right, but I also called it a while ago...

Another big storm (currently 8-2)

It's been a pretty good year so far, but this storm might wreck the record.

Alrighty…If schools are playing it totally safe, they’ll cancel both Tuesday and Wednesday.  The closer they are to the southern border of PA, the more likely it is.  However, I think that might be too safe.  I’m thinking they’ll get the students into school on Tuesday morning and then dismiss early.  I would predict a TUESDAY EARLY DISMISSAL, but Pequea doesn’t have school in session, just in-service for the teachers.  I will still predict that we teachers will be required to come in, at least for an appearance until the roads get bad and they dismiss us home around noon. (80-20)

Now for Wednesday, I’m thinking there will be enough time to plow the roads, but the wind will make them hard to pass through, given drifting and blowing snow.  Either way, a WEDNESDAY TWO-HOUR delay is most likely, unless we’re one of the few districts that get 8-12 inches (65-35).  Don’t forget, we also have already had 3 snow days, but there will be some districts closed Wednesday.

Rest of the week

So there are some possibilities of snow and rain this week.  I'm going to risk calling a blanket statement of "no delays or closings for the entirety of this week"

Freezing Rain tomorrow morning?

Not very likely.  Possible, but not likely.  I'm going to predict NO DELAY OR EARLY DISMISSAL TOMORROW.  80-20 odds.

Wind Chill

Ok, so as much as I want to say, “Suck it up and deal! Wear a coat, gloves, and a hat!”, there are also 1^st graders to think about.  It doesn’t look like the wind chill is going to go up by 10am, when they will be out and at the bus stops.  Also, given that they’re calling for record lows, there is a lot of hype, and we’re not used to this, I think they’ll play it safe.  Also, Wednesday will also be VERY cold, but with a higher wind chill, so I think they’ll play it safe Tuesday, and send everybody in on Wednesday.

The Storm...

Perhaps I'm being a little optimistic (or pessimistic, depending on your point of view), but I don't think this will be as bad as people think.  Hence...

1^st Prediction: We are NOT getting out early today.  Some may want to, given the Winter Weather Advisory, but I don’t really see us needing to get out early.  There will likely be some flurries and a little accumulation by 3:30 when the elementary busses leave, but we’ve done that before.  Although…we have also gotten out early when there hasn’t been any snow falling either…we’ll just have to see, although I don’t find it unreasonable to stay for the full day of school. 65-35 odds

2^nd Prediction: I’m going to waver on this one.  I want to say that we’ll have a two-hour delay.  However, given the temperature will dip to single digits and that there will be a lot of wind (drifting snow), there may be a few transportation problems which might close schools.  All in all, though, I’m predicting a TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow. 51-49 odds