December 12th, 2018

No delay tomorrow, though it is still possible, given our probable tentativeness after the debacles earlier this winter. Mostly certain. Most sources are saying little to no accumulation if they are saying anything at all.

2018 begins!!!!

Hard to say for this one, given I’m 48 hours ahead instead of 24, but I’ll be in Chincoteague tomorrow getting ready for a rocket launch, so here we go…

Sources are either of two extremes: little accumulation or 3-5 inches.  My more local and reliable sources are on the lighter side. Also, given that roads are not TOO cold, the temp will be above freezing, and the Sun is not as low as it can be, I’m going to predict NO EARLY DISMISSAL TOMORROW.  Now, I’ll admit that could change, and if I could change my prediction if NWS issues a winter storm warning, I would, but that is against the integrity of the game. 50/50

A second closing?

Ok, I’m going to take a risk here and bank on the March sun helping the roads out tomorrow morning after a delay. I know it’s going to be below freezing. I know we all have about a foot of snow. I also don’t want another day added to the end of the year, and if there’s a way to get us in and we don’t take it, I’ll be grumbly.  I am going against logic here, but…oh well. I predict ONLY A TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow.

Nor-easter #16396

Alright fine….we’re getting a ton of snow overnight. Fine…I’ll call a CANCELLATION for tomorrow. Grumble. We have a Winter Storm Warning until 8pm Wednesday, and they’re calling for perhaps more than a foot. I bet we get less than a foot, but we’ll still cancel. Governor hasn’t issued a state of emergency, but has a response team thingy ready. And southern PA is getting the worst. And roads will freeze tonight. The roads won’t be as bad as when we get this much snow in January, but it’s enough snow.  Very likely a delay on Thursday.

No delay tomorrow predicted

coating to an inch
on warm roads
no big deal
No delay tomorrow

March Nor'easter Day 2

So….that was underwhelming, though I heard Welsh Mountain got 10 inches. Usually I would say a two-hour delay after a cancellation, but given the underperformance and the quick melting nature of everything, I have a feeling they’ll check the roads tomorrow morning before school and send us in at regular time.  We still COULD get a delay, but I’m GUESSING we won’t. 50/50. Prediction: Regular schedule tomorrow

March Nor-easter

So the “European models” are supposedly saying the storm is going out to sea, but all of my sources are saying at LEAST 3-5 inches on Wednesday. The most likely scenario here (75% - Pequea Valley) is half a foot of snow, during the day on Wednesday. Even if it doesn’t really snow overnight, the threat of 1-2” per hour would make triggering an early dismissal once we’re in fairly difficult to do.  Is it possible we’ll get very little? Yes, but unlikely.

Official Prediction: NO SCHOOL WEDNESDAY

Tentative Prediction: No school Thursday – Unless this system is a bust, the snow will last all day Wednesday, leaving us 6+ inches to plow, giving us at LEAST a delay, but likely a cancellation, as we are typically last to get plowed.  But maybe it won’t be that bad, and we’ll be able to get in and save ourselves from the 6^th snow day.

Currently 9-4

(7-4) Snow, Sleet, Ice Storm Wednesday

Took a loss for the post-super bowl delay I didn't even consider, now 7-4.
But for tomorrow, I'm seeing very little chance of coming in to school, given that 1-3" of snow, then sleet and freezing rain is expected throughout the school day.  There's still a slight chance it starts late and we get in, but I'm at 80% certainty of NO SCHOOL TOMORROW.

Ice? (6-3)

Soo...There will be some concerns about roadways Friday morning, though the precipitation stops pretty early (3-4am), and the temperature continues to drop after that. It's going to be another game time decision, but I'm leaning on NO DELAY TOMORROW.  Be wary of black ice, especially on bridges. There are no winter weather advisories at this time, but give yourself some extra time tomorrow morning. 6-3 right now.

1/30/18

Early Dismissal?
Nah...The snow will continue, but with only about 2" max, temperatures around freezing, and plenty of traffic, the roads should be fine, but caution is still warranted.  The snow should end before 2, which gives us more time to clear the roads before dismissing, making an early dismissal likely more dangerous, in my opinion, than staying at school.

Weird storm (4-3)

50-50 between regular day and closing. Why?

Temperatures around freezing after warm days will keep roads wet, but not icy.  Less than 100% chance of snow.  Looks light-ish. Only starting around 4am, which means not enough time to accumulate. Ending around 1 or 2pm, so no use in letting out early, as it’s better to wait for the roads to improve.

But still…if it’s hard enough in the morning that we get an inch by 6am (unlikely), then it will continue to snow during the commute, and that would close us.  However, and I know I’m betting on the positive outcome here, with my blinders on, I do think this snow will not be all that bad and the roads will be very traversable.

Also, a delay doesn’t seem to be likely, since that would only let the roads get worse before we head out, in my opinion. Hence, official prediction is…REGULAR SCHOOL DAY TOMORROW.  Currently 4-3.

1-3"

Very, very certain we’ll have a delay.  1-3” is a good delay snow.  They’ll likely even call that tonight.  If the snow stops or is only very light by 7am, we’ll be fine and go in.  But, if the snow is steady and continuing, there’s a good chance we could close. All in all, I predict DELAY TOMORROW.

Dismissal & Delay

So I was just lazy/indecisive and didn't call for the early dismissal.  That was silly and bumped me down to 3-2 (2nd loss was that I predicted delay on Friday, but they cancelled).

Now I deem it more likely that they'll delay tomorrow, just because the roads are indeed very icy.  The trucks do have plenty of time to salt, but....it's REALLY cold out there, so I don't know how effective the salt will really be, especially on the back roads that don't get traveled.

So....DELAY TOMORROW. 60-40 chance

Post Cyclone Delay

Why a delay?

1. We usually delay after a closing
2. Wind Chills are as low as -15 Fri morning
3. Blowing snow due to light snow will be all over the back roads

While none of these by themselves would necessarily delay us, the confluence of the three, in my opinion, will.

Currently 3-0.

Bomb Cyclone

This is a really tough one to predict, only given the fact that there is a sharp gradient in the snow totals and significant uncertainty in the storm. So here’s my real prediction.  They’re going to wait until morning to call it.  They have to see, given 50-70% chance, whether there’s a lot of snow or not. My guess is they’ll see an inch or more of snow, see that it will continue until about noon, and decide to keep everyone home.  I am not VERY confident in this prediction, as it will be a hairline decision based on snowfall, this seems the most likely scenario.  Officially the prediction is: SCHOOL CANCELLED TOMORROW. But don’t bank on it. (Side note: likely a delay Friday due to snow, high winds, and low wind chills.)