1/30/18

Early Dismissal?
Nah...The snow will continue, but with only about 2" max, temperatures around freezing, and plenty of traffic, the roads should be fine, but caution is still warranted.  The snow should end before 2, which gives us more time to clear the roads before dismissing, making an early dismissal likely more dangerous, in my opinion, than staying at school.

Weird storm (4-3)

50-50 between regular day and closing. Why?

Temperatures around freezing after warm days will keep roads wet, but not icy.  Less than 100% chance of snow.  Looks light-ish. Only starting around 4am, which means not enough time to accumulate. Ending around 1 or 2pm, so no use in letting out early, as it’s better to wait for the roads to improve.

But still…if it’s hard enough in the morning that we get an inch by 6am (unlikely), then it will continue to snow during the commute, and that would close us.  However, and I know I’m betting on the positive outcome here, with my blinders on, I do think this snow will not be all that bad and the roads will be very traversable.

Also, a delay doesn’t seem to be likely, since that would only let the roads get worse before we head out, in my opinion. Hence, official prediction is…REGULAR SCHOOL DAY TOMORROW.  Currently 4-3.

1-3"

Very, very certain we’ll have a delay.  1-3” is a good delay snow.  They’ll likely even call that tonight.  If the snow stops or is only very light by 7am, we’ll be fine and go in.  But, if the snow is steady and continuing, there’s a good chance we could close. All in all, I predict DELAY TOMORROW.

Dismissal & Delay

So I was just lazy/indecisive and didn't call for the early dismissal.  That was silly and bumped me down to 3-2 (2nd loss was that I predicted delay on Friday, but they cancelled).

Now I deem it more likely that they'll delay tomorrow, just because the roads are indeed very icy.  The trucks do have plenty of time to salt, but....it's REALLY cold out there, so I don't know how effective the salt will really be, especially on the back roads that don't get traveled.

So....DELAY TOMORROW. 60-40 chance

Post Cyclone Delay

Why a delay?

1. We usually delay after a closing
2. Wind Chills are as low as -15 Fri morning
3. Blowing snow due to light snow will be all over the back roads

While none of these by themselves would necessarily delay us, the confluence of the three, in my opinion, will.

Currently 3-0.

Bomb Cyclone

This is a really tough one to predict, only given the fact that there is a sharp gradient in the snow totals and significant uncertainty in the storm. So here’s my real prediction.  They’re going to wait until morning to call it.  They have to see, given 50-70% chance, whether there’s a lot of snow or not. My guess is they’ll see an inch or more of snow, see that it will continue until about noon, and decide to keep everyone home.  I am not VERY confident in this prediction, as it will be a hairline decision based on snowfall, this seems the most likely scenario.  Officially the prediction is: SCHOOL CANCELLED TOMORROW. But don’t bank on it. (Side note: likely a delay Friday due to snow, high winds, and low wind chills.)