NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

Update: Looks like rain after the wintry mix, all before 4am, hence I don't expect any delays tomorrow.  My prediction: Normal schedule tomorrow .  People further north have a better chance of delays Also, I'm starting off the blogs this year with a win under my belt (see pic below).  That being said, the most up to date info will be on Twitter @mrwebbpv .  Follow me as I use the hashtag #nerdalert to communicate the random thoughts I have about the weather as well as astronomy, the planetarium, and such...

70% chance of 1 to 2 to 4 inches on warm roads on a freezing night.    LOTS of variables, but I think a two-hour delay is the safe middle-of-the-road prediction (what’s so safe about the middle of the road?). Closure doesn’t seem TOOO likely, unless we get 4 inches and they fall in the morning, but a normal day isn’t out of the question either, given the 70% chance.   Official Prediction: TWO-HOUR DELAY .   Maybe I’ll get to 7-7 this year.

Only a small possibility of a delay.   Maybe 20%, given that there’s only a 50% chance of wet snow on juuuuuust above freezing roads that can be treated.   NO DELAY TOMORROW. Also, there’s been much ado about Wednesday as well.   I will predict NO DELAY WEDNESDAY, too.

It looks like there will be some messy stuff overnight, 1-3"inches with some freezing rain or sleet on top of that.  I think they'll be safe and call a TWO-HOUR DELAY to make sure roads are relatively safe, though the rain should clear them fairly well.  I don't see much of a chance of a cancellation, though it's never out of the question.

So it looks like we got a "storm" on the low end of the predictions, and the roads were warm enough and treated enough to deal with the slow falling of snow.  Another lesson in humility. What about an early dismissal? Possibly, but given above freezing temperatures, treated roads, daylight to give road crews time and thermal energy, I don't think it'll happen. What about a delay on Wednesday? This is a closer call, but given the predictions are very similar to last night's predictions and they're said to end early-ish, I don't think this is going to happen either (although some schools may play it safe). So...NO EARLY DISMISSAL TUESDAY, NO DELAY WEDNESDAY

It's looking like we won't have school tomorrow, and here's why: Snow starts tonight and continues throughout Tuesday.  If 3" were dumped overnight, I'd say delay, but it will continue to snow and mess up roads throughout the day Winter Storm Watch is in effect into Tuesday night People have to shovel out in the morning  Ways to only have a delay: Weaker storm that allows very clear roads Warmer temperatures that allow easily cleared roads  I think what will happen is the school will call a delay in the morning, and then decide in the morning, late, whether to close or not.  If it's a weaker storm and roads are manageable, I could see us coming in, but normally if it's snowing they don't bring students in. 2:1 odds. Either way, better than puppymonkeybaby

So we're getting about an inch of rain today with a high of 57˚, hence, lots of melting, and a flood watch: RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL POSE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING. * FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE JUNIATA BASIN AND LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES.  Here's what we've had in the past: 8/25/11 - After Hurricane Irene brought 3 inches of rain in one day - no delay 9/8/11 - Leftovers from Hurricane Lee brought 6 inches in 4 days - delay 9/9/11 - Flood warning that included the phrase "life-threatening". Rivers had enough time to drain, most roads were reopened, no issues - no delay 1/31/13 - Flood warning, heavy flooding - delay I just don't see the urgency this time around that I've seen in the past.  Yes, there will be some flooding, and it will get worse tonight, but I don't see it gettin...

There’s less than 50% chance of anything happening tonight, but even so, the temperatures are just below freezing, so I don’t see refreezing as being significant.   Offices were open today, so I highly doubt there will be any cancellations (for PV). I’ll give it 50-50 odds between delay/regular schedule, but will put my imaginary money on NO DELAY TOMORROW .  

Anyone else get thundersnow???? Ok, so another lesson learned – don’t make predictions 5 days ahead of time.   The storm will always change, and this time it was way more intense than expected. The next two days are pretty complicated, however, due to many factors: Schools are only getting cleared out today (and I know our maintenance crew is hard at work out there – thank you!); Gap got 30”; some roads in Lancaster aren’t even plowed, or shoveled, or looked at, yet; melting snow today; 26˚ low tonight (refreezing); rain Tuesday possible, but a low overnight close to freezing (salt can do its job).   Ugh.   I think it’s just a big mess, so I’m going to predict NO SCHOOL TUESDAY .   We might be able to get in (assuming our city folk have snowshoes and/or a nice neighbor who will pick them up for school), but I don’t think they want to risk it.   65-35 odds.   I’m thinking a two-hour delay on Wednesday right now, but will confirm tom...

The storm will come too late to actually have any effect on Friday, so NO Early Dismissal on Friday.   Monday though….could there be a delay?   I think so, with 60-40 odds.   Yes, Sunday will be partly sunny and there will be a whole day to clean up the mess, but it is one BIG mess, and back roads tend to be forgotten (or at least last on the list) in many cases.   Additionally, the possible blizzard conditions will make blowing snow an issue, especially on PV’s back farm roads, though winds will be lower (but not zero) on Sunday night.   If we get more than a foot, definitely a delay.   Less than a foot? Not as likely.   I’ll predict now (5 days out? I never do this) that there will be a 2-HOUR DELAY ON MONDAY.   Here's a good map from Millersville: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html  

As we start wishing and hoping for snow and cancellations (while also hoping everyone stays safe), it's entertaining to look back on previous years.  Here's a review of the last 6 winters' opportunities (chances), delays, closings, early dismissals, and my record, along with a few notable notes.  This winter will be influenced by a strong El Nino, with 09-10 being similar, although a moderate El Nino. With a 60˚ Christmas, who knows what we'll get this year. Winter 09-10             Two big storms in a row bringing about a foot and a half each, the second cancelling three days of school (W - F) being a blizzard. Delays: 4             Closings: 4 (one on a SMUD)             Early Dismissals: 1             Chances: 19 ...

First threat of snow of the year and it's.....not going to be much, or very likely. I'm thinking it will pretty much just be some flurries, if anything.  So... No early dismissals or delays.   Just too little chance and too little predicted.   Wait until this weekend…