NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

Prediction: We’ve got a Winter Weather Advisory until 1pm, which makes a cancellation/FID a real possibility.  However, that would require the storm to be really bad.  Freezing rain should end somewhat early.  And there’s always a possibility of nothing actually happening.  Hence, I’ll put my money down on a 2-hour delay, with FID being a real possibility.  "Research" For 2/2/26 Tuesday ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total ice accumulations up to   one tenth of an inch and snow accumulations less than one inch. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 4 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous   conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A light glaze of ice is expected late tonight   and Tuesday morning, especially on the higher elevations. MUWeather:  Another wave of low ...

Roads are looking great.  Wet snow means no drifting. High sun and warm roads means it won’t be sticking.  Therefore, even though we “Closed” today, I’m thinking NO DELAY TOMORROW. Regarding today, I stuck with my "two-hour delay" prediction, thinking the storm would not give us the hyped amounts of snow.  We probably went to FID because we were prepared for it and it was still snowing a little in the morning.  What snow amounts did you get?

This one’s a little tricky, as are all the days where wind chills are the only major factor. These wind chills are colder than the January 20th delay by 10˚.  We have a Cold Weather Advisory in effect from 1am to 10am on Thursday, calling for wind chills as low as 15 below zero.  As much as I would love to have a normal day and end to the school week, I think the wind chills are going to cause delays.   Therefore I predict a 2-hour delay on Thursday.

 Welp! We got the 2 snow days!!! The roads look pretty ok right now, which made me think that MAYBE we wouldn't need a delay Wednesday.  However there is a Cold Weather Advisory for Wednesday morning calling for cold wind chills 10 to 15 below zero.  We've delayed for this in the past, and it's right after a snow day.  Hence, I believe we will have a 2-hour delay tomorrow.  Stay tuned for possible delays due to the cold, as Thursday and Friday like they have similar or colder "feels like" temperatures. 

Current Record: 4-2 Prediction:   LOTS to think about here, but there are some obvious answers.  Main (preliminary) prediction is: Monday: No School Tuesday: No School Wednesday: at least a 2-hour delay, betting on Delay Thursday: Maybe a delay, but betting No Delay Friday: Back to normal Why?  Well…It’s really looking like we’ll get about 12 inches of snow, and back in 2017 we had a similar storm and had 2 closings and a delay.  People will need time to dig out of a foot of snow. 2 days of plowing should be enough time to get it all cleared, but we typically have a delay after a closing, and it will be pretty cold. But what would change this outcome?  Many factors: Drifting snow:  This system will produce a lighter/fluffier snow for most areas, with a transition to heavier snow consistency and increasing wind Sunday afternoon onward.  This means winds will continue to drift the snow across the roads by farm fields for a couple days, though it’s b...

 Current Record: 3-2 Prediction:  Well, that caught me by surprise!  We’ve never had a delay due to temperatures (even realfeels) above 0˚. In the past, it’s been -20 wind chill would close, -15 would delay.  We got down to about 9˚ with a realfeel of 0˚ish.  Tomorrow morning will be 8˚ with a realfeel of 2˚.   Now, if we’re assuming consistency, we will also have a delay tomorrow (though drifting snow will definitely NOT be an issue) If we’re going with the argument from “Come ooooooonnnnnn” ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ , then I think we’ll have regular school tomorrow.  So, while I usually avoid the logical fallacy of “Oh, come ooooooon”, I’m going with NO DELAY TOMORROW. We all know how cold it is, roads will be fine, and we’re not coming back from a 4 day weekend anymore.  Still only 50/50 odds though. 

Prediction:  I’m going to bet on NO DELAY tomorrow.  As of now, nobody is calling for even 1 inch, the temperatures are hovering around freezing, and the roads can be salted.  3:1 odds.  Still a possibility of enough snow for a delay.  That would be disappointing though, since the early dismissal would turn into a regular dismissal time day (with a delay). Fingers crossed.

Current Record: 0-0 Prediction:  I was thinking CLOSING for a couple of days now, given that it was meant to be substantial snow fall (2 or 3 inches) and would continue snowing past noon, during the morning commute.  However, the predictions have been trending lower.  I guarantee at LEAST a delay.  They might even call a delay tonight.  It’ll likely be gameday decision tomorrow morning, but I think I’m leaning on CLOSING tomorrow being more likely.  Why?  Timing is bad.  Temperatures will be low.  We should consider our staff come from all over the county.  Freezing Rain is being thrown around in some forecasts.  I wouldn’t be surprised if people in the valley end up thinking, “we could have gone in”, but I think the roads north of us and in the mountains will make a good case for the closing.   Final Prediction: Closed Schools Tuesday, but don't turn off your alarms altogether.  Here's the background research: Winter...

 Current Record: 6-1 Prediction:  Welp, things have settled in a bit since yesterday, and I’ve got news that’s probably disappointing to some: Tuesday’s prediction remains the same: Tuesday : Normal day (it’s starting too late to guarantee an early dismissal, and would just be snow) Wednesday’s prediction changes… Wednesday : Just a delay .  1-3 inches overnight is a pretty standard case for a delay. Not guaranteed, but real good.  Typically at least an inch will grant us a delay.  The…unfortunate?...part is that what I was seeing yesterday with additional snow/freezing rain during the day on Wed just isn’t showing up anymore, so I think we’ll be in the clear to come in 2 hours late.  Thursday’s prediction changes as well… Thursday : NO delay .  It’s still possible, given the precipitation overnight and analysis from yesterday (The wintry precipitation will be done, however, regular rain won’t just wash away ice, sleet, and snow, especially in sub-fre...

Current Record: 6-1 Preliminary prediction:   Tuesday : Normal day (it’s starting too late to guarantee an early dismissal, and would just be snow) Wednesday : CANCELLATION .  1-3 inches overnight isn’t enough to close, however, there will be more snow and possibly freezing rain during the day, and nobody wants to drive a bus of kids in that.   Thursday : 2-hour delay.   The wintry precipitation will be done, however, regular rain won’t just wash away ice, sleet, and snow, especially in sub-freezing temperatures that are predicted Some of the data I'm working with:  

Current Record: 5-1 Prediction:  After that surprise delay on Monday, we’re back at it!   Yeah, we’re all thinking/hoping for a delay for Thursday, but I’m predicting a CLOSING on Thursday.  It’d be super cool (HA!) if the freezing rain stops by 9 or 10am, as predicted, but that won’t be enough time to actually clear the roads, especially after seeing up to 1” of sleet is possible in some areas.  I think in order for us to have just a delay, the storm will need to underperform and just rain starting at 7am, clearing the roads in an obvious way such that the back roads would be “fine”, which feels very unlikely. Here's some of the data I'm working with:

 Current Record: 4-0 Prediction:  90% confidence – Calling for NO DELAY tomorrow.  It’ll still be cold, but not -10˚ wind chills.  In fact, the real feel is looking like 5˚.  Also, the roads got much better than expected over yesterday, so I don’t think we can really count that as an issue. Overall, very certain NO DELAY on Thursday.  Hopefully this warmer weather doesn’t tempt our middle schoolers to wear shorts and a t-shirt to the bus stop. That would be totally ohio of them.

Current Record: 3-0 Prediction:  It’s a toss-up.  We usually don’t get 2 delays in a row. Roads might improve a little bit today. -10 wind chills have not closed or delayed schools in the past. But…we are under a cold weather advisory and wind chills will be 5˚ colder than today.  Roads won’t improve much.  If we’re looking for consistency, I think a delay will happen.  If we’re thinking that people are more prepared this time around, we won’t have a delay.  I’m going to reluctantly predict a DELAY WEDNESDAY .  I’m comfortable either way, but I think a delay will likely be appreciated by parents, especially those of elementary kiddos. 

Current Record: 1-0 Prediction: Alrighty y’all…I’m VERY certain we’ll have a delay tomorrow, as there are two factors that independently would likely get us a delay.        1) Cold Weather advisory – in the past, superintendents have gotten together and agreed that a Wind Chill advisory means no closing (but probably a delay), but they would close on a Watch or Warning.  This is a cold weather advisory, which is slightly different, but…       2) It is too darn cold out there for the roads to significantly clear out.  Travel will be difficult tomorrow morning since the back roads that aren’t as traveled and likely in shaded areas and drifted areas will not melt away.  I SUPPOSE we could be closed tomorrow, but…just doesn’t feel right.  Now…Wednesday delay?  That’s a little iffy.  Another day will have passed to clear the roads. And typically we don’t have two delays in a row without more snow.  The cold wea...

Ready for an extra day of holiday break?  I think it’s going to happen!  Why?  Couple reasons… Nobody is predicting less than an inch, so it’s next to impossible that we’ll get NOTHING.  The timing is terrible for transportation, as it starts early in the morning and dumps a lot in a few hours. Could we get students in on a little snow and wait for the plows to clear the roads for dismissal??? Probably not, given the potential for 6” of snow, the lightness of the snow, and some wind making drifting a problem later on.  Hence, I’m predicting CANCELLATION of school tomorrow.  ADDITIONALLY, I’ll predict a TWO-HOUR DELAY on Tuesday, given the drifting of snow due to the wind, and the back-road nature of PV.

To add another layer of prediction uncertainty, we have the prospect of an FID.  That would be a very simple and safe call to make, as there’s no risk of travel incidents and we would get a school day out of it.  But we all know how effective the FID’s are, so there is a tendency to not want to do this option if we can avoid it.   I’m seeing 1-3” called for on most sources (3-5” on Weather Underground).  This might not be much in February, and as much as I’d like say the roads will be able to melt it all quickly, they’re calling for HEAVY snow between 6am and 8am.  The timing and rate of snowfall are the killers here.  Therefore, I’m going to call it a FID tomorrow.  I feel like they’ll call a delay and then go FID, just in case the storm does next to nothing for some reason and we could still get in, but I’m giving 4 to 1 odds of an FID. 

Definitely had a learning moment with the loss due to delays called for Wednesday.  I was far too confident that the roads would get cleared.  It was too cold for that. For Friday, predictions are fairly solid and uniform for 1-3 inches in Lancaster County.  Some, citing a potential inverted trough, are saying we could get 4-6.   Seems unlikely we’ll get no snow. Looking back at the week, the snow fell on the roads, and since they were very cold and the snow was the light and fluffy kind, it was difficult for plows to get that last half-inch off the road, leaving it very slippery, even after the snow stopped.  In order to not have a closing, this would have to drastically underperform, calls would have to wait until morning to see if it’s snowing, and superintendents would have to risk very slippery roads.  I’m convinced we will have a SNOW DAY CANCELLATION FRIDAY. 

Wondering where I picked to go for the eclipse?  Go play The Drew Carey Show theme song. Roads should have plenty of time to be plowed and salted.   That being said, watch out for black ice in the morning commute, as temps will drop to 14, given the clear skies, and refreeze any snow that had melted before.  Otherwise, really no threat for Wednesday morning, so I'm predicting NO DELAY WEDNESDAY.

 Ok,  I've been (not retired, Urban!) focused on finding a place for the eclipse in April, so I apologize for the tardiness of this prediction.   50/50 shot between delay and closing.  DEFINITELY  at least a delay.  If this were all dumped overnight, I'd guarantee JUST a delay, however it will continue snowing into the morning, which makes me think closing.  But...it will be light.  Overall, I'm going to call CLOSING ON TUESDAY.    It will be a game-time decision, but I'm leaning toward closing because it'll still be snowing, the roads will be cold, and we'll still be in a winter weather advisory.  Then, likely a no-delay on Wednesday.

Prediction: REGULAR SCHEDULE TOMORROW.  As much as I’d like to endorse Wentzel’s “6 FEET!!!” prediction, there are some holes to be poked in that hypothesis.  Looks like the snow isn’t starting until 10 or 11am, meaning we have PLENTY of time to get learners in safely.  Also, at that time it’s looking to be about 35˚.  Combine that with likely to be treated roads, I don’t really see many issues. That being said, traveling between 10 and 2 COULD be troublesome, so be careful. Also, it looks like the snow precipitation will end by 2, so we’ll be safe to send the busses.  All in all, open your blinds and enjoy the view tomorrow.