NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

Since yesterday, I’ve said this will be at least a delay. What is making me think it will be a cancellation? Timing…snow will end around the end of a delay, temperatures will keep dropping, 4-8” of snow will be tough to clear, it’s pretty defensible to call off of school when some teachers might get 10” of snow. What is making me think it will be just a delay? It’s been warm, so the roads should be easier to clear, wet snow means no drifting, I really want it to be just a delay, Eric Horst says this is a tough call, anywhere from 1” – 10”. In the end, I predict we will have NO SCHOOL TOMORROW , 60-40 odds. Additionally, but not officially, I predict the schools will probably call the delay tonight, and call the cancellation in the morning.

Yup, it's snowing, but it's just a passing snow squall, and we're likely to get less than an inch of snow overnight.  I'm calling NO DELAY TOMORROW.

After getting defeated by the weather by that surprise delay last Monday, making me 3-1, I've been hearing some thinking that there will be a delay tomorrow due to slushy stuff being possible at higher elevations in the county. While I bet some snow will be present around Welsh Mountain, I don't think it'll be enough to delay, even given our current skiddish-ness toward snow.  NO DELAY TOMORROW is my prediction.

This one is really difficult to pin down.   The national sources are saying 1-3” while local sources are saying closer to 1”, which is right on the border of what I would say is delay worthy.   Temperatures will stay low and keep the snow frozen until roads are treated, but it’s not a lot to treat for.   Looking in the history books, when there wasn’t any freezing rain or other mess and only an inch, there were not delays (typically), and perhaps this one is getting overblown being the first of the new year. Sooooo…..I’m going to call NO DELAY TOMORROW , with fair to low confidence.

Update: Looks like rain after the wintry mix, all before 4am, hence I don't expect any delays tomorrow.  My prediction: Normal schedule tomorrow .  People further north have a better chance of delays Also, I'm starting off the blogs this year with a win under my belt (see pic below).  That being said, the most up to date info will be on Twitter @mrwebbpv .  Follow me as I use the hashtag #nerdalert to communicate the random thoughts I have about the weather as well as astronomy, the planetarium, and such...

70% chance of 1 to 2 to 4 inches on warm roads on a freezing night.    LOTS of variables, but I think a two-hour delay is the safe middle-of-the-road prediction (what’s so safe about the middle of the road?). Closure doesn’t seem TOOO likely, unless we get 4 inches and they fall in the morning, but a normal day isn’t out of the question either, given the 70% chance.   Official Prediction: TWO-HOUR DELAY .   Maybe I’ll get to 7-7 this year.

Only a small possibility of a delay.   Maybe 20%, given that there’s only a 50% chance of wet snow on juuuuuust above freezing roads that can be treated.   NO DELAY TOMORROW. Also, there’s been much ado about Wednesday as well.   I will predict NO DELAY WEDNESDAY, too.