NerdAlert Weather for Pequea Valley

There’s less than 50% chance of anything happening tonight, but even so, the temperatures are just below freezing, so I don’t see refreezing as being significant.   Offices were open today, so I highly doubt there will be any cancellations (for PV). I’ll give it 50-50 odds between delay/regular schedule, but will put my imaginary money on NO DELAY TOMORROW .  

Anyone else get thundersnow???? Ok, so another lesson learned – don’t make predictions 5 days ahead of time.   The storm will always change, and this time it was way more intense than expected. The next two days are pretty complicated, however, due to many factors: Schools are only getting cleared out today (and I know our maintenance crew is hard at work out there – thank you!); Gap got 30”; some roads in Lancaster aren’t even plowed, or shoveled, or looked at, yet; melting snow today; 26˚ low tonight (refreezing); rain Tuesday possible, but a low overnight close to freezing (salt can do its job).   Ugh.   I think it’s just a big mess, so I’m going to predict NO SCHOOL TUESDAY .   We might be able to get in (assuming our city folk have snowshoes and/or a nice neighbor who will pick them up for school), but I don’t think they want to risk it.   65-35 odds.   I’m thinking a two-hour delay on Wednesday right now, but will confirm tom...

The storm will come too late to actually have any effect on Friday, so NO Early Dismissal on Friday.   Monday though….could there be a delay?   I think so, with 60-40 odds.   Yes, Sunday will be partly sunny and there will be a whole day to clean up the mess, but it is one BIG mess, and back roads tend to be forgotten (or at least last on the list) in many cases.   Additionally, the possible blizzard conditions will make blowing snow an issue, especially on PV’s back farm roads, though winds will be lower (but not zero) on Sunday night.   If we get more than a foot, definitely a delay.   Less than a foot? Not as likely.   I’ll predict now (5 days out? I never do this) that there will be a 2-HOUR DELAY ON MONDAY.   Here's a good map from Millersville: http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/SWD-latest.html  

As we start wishing and hoping for snow and cancellations (while also hoping everyone stays safe), it's entertaining to look back on previous years.  Here's a review of the last 6 winters' opportunities (chances), delays, closings, early dismissals, and my record, along with a few notable notes.  This winter will be influenced by a strong El Nino, with 09-10 being similar, although a moderate El Nino. With a 60˚ Christmas, who knows what we'll get this year. Winter 09-10             Two big storms in a row bringing about a foot and a half each, the second cancelling three days of school (W - F) being a blizzard. Delays: 4             Closings: 4 (one on a SMUD)             Early Dismissals: 1             Chances: 19 ...

First threat of snow of the year and it's.....not going to be much, or very likely. I'm thinking it will pretty much just be some flurries, if anything.  So... No early dismissals or delays.   Just too little chance and too little predicted.   Wait until this weekend…

No early dismissal - not sticking to the roads, and it'll get harder as we go to stick

If this storm were to occur in January, I would immediately call for a cancellation.   However, given the warmer temperatures, wet snow, and high sun angle, I don’t think the snow will really stick much and will generally be wet, not causing too many issues.   The only issue complicating this is the Winter Weather Advisory (though it’s not a warning).   One way they could go is to call a delay early, but see that the roads aren’t bad, and get everyone in for a day (maybe I just don’t want a snow day). Another way is that they don’t call a delay, notice that not much has fallen and the roads are ok, and get everyone in on regular schedule (I really DON’T want a snow day), with the option of an early dismissal.   Or they could just not risk it at all and call a snow day (please…no).   I usually get burned with wishful thinking, but I’m going to call A TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow, though the roads will be no problem in the morning. One weird way or anoth...