For Tuesday 2/12/24

To add another layer of prediction uncertainty, we have the prospect of an FID.  That would be a very simple and safe call to make, as there’s no risk of travel incidents and we would get a school day out of it.  But we all know how effective the FID’s are, so there is a tendency to not want to do this option if we can avoid it.  

I’m seeing 1-3” called for on most sources (3-5” on Weather Underground).  This might not be much in February, and as much as I’d like say the roads will be able to melt it all quickly, they’re calling for HEAVY snow between 6am and 8am.  The timing and rate of snowfall are the killers here. 

Therefore, I’m going to call it a FID tomorrow.  I feel like they’ll call a delay and then go FID, just in case the storm does next to nothing for some reason and we could still get in, but I’m giving 4 to 1 odds of an FID. 

FOR FRIDAY 1/18/24

Definitely had a learning moment with the loss due to delays called for Wednesday.  I was far too confident that the roads would get cleared.  It was too cold for that.

For Friday, predictions are fairly solid and uniform for 1-3 inches in Lancaster County.  Some, citing a potential inverted trough, are saying we could get 4-6.   Seems unlikely we’ll get no snow. Looking back at the week, the snow fell on the roads, and since they were very cold and the snow was the light and fluffy kind, it was difficult for plows to get that last half-inch off the road, leaving it very slippery, even after the snow stopped.  In order to not have a closing, this would have to drastically underperform, calls would have to wait until morning to see if it’s snowing, and superintendents would have to risk very slippery roads.  I’m convinced we will have a SNOW DAY CANCELLATION FRIDAY. 

For 1/17/24

Wondering where I picked to go for the eclipse?  Go play The Drew Carey Show theme song.

Roads should have plenty of time to be plowed and salted.   That being said, watch out for black ice in the morning commute, as temps will drop to 14, given the clear skies, and refreeze any snow that had melted before.  Otherwise, really no threat for Wednesday morning, so I'm predicting NO DELAY WEDNESDAY.

1st Snow Threat of 2024

 Ok, 

I've been (not retired, Urban!) focused on finding a place for the eclipse in April, so I apologize for the tardiness of this prediction.  

50/50 shot between delay and closing.  DEFINITELY  at least a delay.  If this were all dumped overnight, I'd guarantee JUST a delay, however it will continue snowing into the morning, which makes me think closing.  But...it will be light. 

Overall, I'm going to call CLOSING ON TUESDAY.   It will be a game-time decision, but I'm leaning toward closing because it'll still be snowing, the roads will be cold, and we'll still be in a winter weather advisory. 

Then, likely a no-delay on Wednesday.

Thumping 1/25/23

Prediction: REGULAR SCHEDULE TOMORROW.  As much as I’d like to endorse Wentzel’s “6 FEET!!!” prediction, there are some holes to be poked in that hypothesis. 

Looks like the snow isn’t starting until 10 or 11am, meaning we have PLENTY of time to get learners in safely.  Also, at that time it’s looking to be about 35˚.  Combine that with likely to be treated roads, I don’t really see many issues. That being said, traveling between 10 and 2 COULD be troublesome, so be careful. Also, it looks like the snow precipitation will end by 2, so we’ll be safe to send the busses.  All in all, open your blinds and enjoy the view tomorrow.

Pre-Holiday Break Cancellation?

I’m seeing really only a 10% chance of us not being in school tomorrow, though it might be closer of a call than expected.  All the typical sites are calling for rain to start in the morning commute time with temperatures above freezing, and nary a call of “freezing rain”, except from WGAL saying there will be a mix of rain and freezing rain.  I wish I could be more certain of this, but there’s plenty of caution touted by MU Weather Center.  All this being said, I’ll predict NO DELAY OR CLOSING TOMORROW.  There IS plenty of wild weather coming our way, and I think Kyle Elliot presents it best here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php  Be careful on Friday.  

Thursday Freezing Rain?

Prediction:  Yikes, this one is truly a dice roll. Freezing rain doesn’t potentially start until after midnight and lasts until noonish…potentially.  I’m seeing overnight POPs of 30% to 70%.  I’d like to say it’s a game day decision, but I don’t think anyone wants to get caught in freezing rain that just happens to start when the busses do. I’m guessing they’ll call a delay tonight or tomorrow morning and then see what happens in the morning to determine delay vs. closure.  It’d be nice to get this day in, but I think the odds are that there will be something happening during the transportation time no matter what, so they’ll call a cancellation.  Might even be one of those cases where they call a cancellation and nothing happens…

All of this is to say…begrudgingly…I’ll predict a cancellation tomorrow, even though that feeds right into Sutherland’s hopes and dreams.    Not because the weather will be particularly dangerous, but dangerous enough.