The current setup of Hurricane Ida reminds me of 2011 when we had a closing due to flooding, given Tropical Storm Lee, which dropped 6.63” on this area after two days of almost 2” each, according to NOAA historical weather data. My notes from that day read, “6 inches of rain, 3 river flood warnings – flooded roads – Closing! But only 1 day, since once the rivers crest (or before), roads open back up”.
Right now, we only have watches, and forecasts are calling for 3-6” total. On the other hand, EPAWA is saying that this rain will drop very quickly and we are in an area that could get a major flood stage. Horst seems to be downplaying it for our area a bit, but given PV’s local creeks and such, they might be impassable. There are certainly good arguments to be made on either side, but, right now, predicting two days ahead of time at 51/49 odds that we will NOT have a closure. Bottom line is that it’s going to be a game time decision based on scouts checking out the road and creek conditions. I would switch my position if we were assured 6+” of rain and if we had more rain beforehand, like Lee.
