Much ado about...nothing

Only a small possibility of a delay.  Maybe 20%, given that there’s only a 50% chance of wet snow on juuuuuust above freezing roads that can be treated.  NO DELAY TOMORROW.

Also, there’s been much ado about Wednesday as well.  I will predict NO DELAY WEDNESDAY, too.

Feb 15th, 2016

It looks like there will be some messy stuff overnight, 1-3"inches with some freezing rain or sleet on top of that.  I think they'll be safe and call a TWO-HOUR DELAY to make sure roads are relatively safe, though the rain should clear them fairly well.  I don't see much of a chance of a cancellation, though it's never out of the question.

2/9/16

So it looks like we got a "storm" on the low end of the predictions, and the roads were warm enough and treated enough to deal with the slow falling of snow.  Another lesson in humility.

What about an early dismissal? Possibly, but given above freezing temperatures, treated roads, daylight to give road crews time and thermal energy, I don't think it'll happen.
What about a delay on Wednesday? This is a closer call, but given the predictions are very similar to last night's predictions and they're said to end early-ish, I don't think this is going to happen either (although some schools may play it safe).
So...NO EARLY DISMISSAL TUESDAY, NO DELAY WEDNESDAY

Second Significant Snow

It's looking like we won't have school tomorrow, and here's why:

• Snow starts tonight and continues throughout Tuesday.  If 3" were dumped overnight, I'd say delay, but it will continue to snow and mess up roads throughout the day
• Winter Storm Watch is in effect into Tuesday night
• People have to shovel out in the morning 

Ways to only have a delay:

• Weaker storm that allows very clear roads
• Warmer temperatures that allow easily cleared roads 

I think what will happen is the school will call a delay in the morning, and then decide in the morning, late, whether to close or not.  If it's a weaker storm and roads are manageable, I could see us coming in, but normally if it's snowing they don't bring students in. 2:1 odds. Either way, better than puppymonkeybaby

Rain after 2 feet of snow

So we're getting about an inch of rain today with a high of 57˚, hence, lots of melting, and a flood watch:

 RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL POSE AN INCREASED RISK OF FLOODING.

* FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
  THURSDAY ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE JUNIATA BASIN AND
  LOWER MAIN STEM SUSQUEHANNA TRIBUTARIES. 

Here's what we've had in the past:

• 8/25/11 - After Hurricane Irene brought 3 inches of rain in one day - no delay
• 9/8/11 - Leftovers from Hurricane Lee brought 6 inches in 4 days - delay
• 9/9/11 - Flood warning that included the phrase "life-threatening". Rivers had enough time to drain, most roads were reopened, no issues - no delay
• 1/31/13 - Flood warning, heavy flooding - delay

I just don't see the urgency this time around that I've seen in the past.  Yes, there will be some flooding, and it will get worse tonight, but I don't see it getting bad enough for a delay.  Definitely not a closing.  WGAL says "A Flood Watch is in effect from noon today until 5 PM Thursday. Smaller rivers, streams, and creeks will reach action stage, but likely remain below flood stage. Urban flooding is also possible in low lying/poor drainage areas. If you have storm drains in your neighborhood, try to clear them of snow and ice. We are expecting .75" to 1" of rain, plus snow melt; so rivers, streams, and creeks will crest Thursday, before gradually falling at the end of the week."Also, temps won't low enough for freezing, so don't worry about that.

All in all: NO DELAYS OR EARLY DISMISSALS FOR THIS RAIN