Monday Redo? (1-1)

Prediction:  If you think I’m padding my stats, blame Smoker – he asked what my call will be for tomorrow. Oh, and the rumor is going around of a delay…Before I go there, let’s acknowledge the let-down this storm was by looking at Before/During weather maps from EPAWA:

Quite a move North, and quite a bust!

That said, it looks like we need to be careful out there tonight, but only the untreated surfaces will likely be slick. Our roads are treated, the temp is above freezing, and counter to what other schools may be doing already, there will be NO DELAY tomorrow.

Monday morning malevolence (1-0)

EARLY DISMISSAL: This is one of those rare times when all 4 options are on the table, however, here’s what I see as the most likely scenario: The snowfall overnight and into the morning is still uncertain, so I believe they will have to “See what it’s like out there” before calling a delay. I’m betting the roads will be fine, as we are in the part of the Winter Weather Advisory with much less accumulation expected.  HOWEVER, the snow will switchover to sleet and freezing rain, and ain’t nobody got time for kids being stuck on busses during a terrible afternoon commute. I foresee them letting us out early, maybe even earlier than a scheduled 12pm dismissal, to make sure everyone gets home safely.  This is not to say they won’t just cancel the school day, but I think we’ll be able to get kids in at least for a little while. 60-30-10 Early Dismissal-Cancel-No change odds

And so it begins...underwhelmingly (0-0)

Most forecasts are calling for "up to one inch" and it's warm today.  The roads are warm, too. Hence, even with the Welsh mountain possibly getting 2 inches, there will be NO DELAY TOMORROW and I'm 80% sure. Drive safe, but don't worry too much that the roads will be impassable.

March toward a delay?

Welp, the first of March might bring us a delay. Forecasts are very consistent in calling for 1-3” overnight ending by dawn, which pretty much guarantees a delay. It will be below freezing, but with warm-ish roads holding on to the sunshine from today and the early sunrise, we should have no problem plowing/melting. DELAY TOMORROW (90% certain)

Another Weird Timing

My prediction?

Wednesday: Closed

Thursday: 2-Hour delay

Why? I was hoping we’d be able to get in on Wednesday and then get dismissed early, but it sounds like whenever it starts it will hit hard. Thus, even if we dismiss at 11, kids are in a big snow storm until 1, or whenever their bus gets them home. I think they’ll play it safe and cancel in the morning. It’s STILL possible to get in school and get dismissed SUPER early, as the shot callers might want to see snow before they call, but I doubt they’re going to want to risk another November traffic problem.

Thursday: With 3-5 inches the night before, a delay is normal. It might be warmer, but roads are likely still a mess as rain on top of snow is harder to plow.

Double Hitter

Focus on Monday: Some models show a respite after sunrise, some don’t. I guarantee a delay, but a closing is still possible. I’ll predict DELAY MONDAY (with a possibility of an early dismissal, but I’m not calling it…yet)

Tuesday: Looks like a MESS until the afternoon. I’ll predict CLOSING on Tuesday.

Wednesday is unlikely a delay, even if we’re closed Tuesday. (Though a flood day? Probably not…not enough snow on the ground. Last time that happened we had 8 inches on the ground.) No delay Wednesday

Early Dismissal

Well thanks for actually checking out my losing predictions. Currently 4-6. Or maybe you're just here to see what WON'T happen...
Anyway... No early dismissal today. Snow will be too little, too early.

Wind Chill day #1

Current Record: 4-4

Prediction:  Based on research, I believe Wind Chill Advisory will cause a 2-HOUR DELAY Thursday morning, especially since there’s more snow coming today. The only thing that would change my mind is if it becomes a Wind Chill WARNING or WATCH. That seems unlikely to happen, but there’s my caveat.

Post-Storm delay?

Current Record: 4-3

Prediction:  A delay is certainly possible tomorrow morning, but I’m getting the vibe that this storm isn’t as bad as expected, plus the 1-3 inches will be done falling by 8pm, giving plenty of time to plow and salt. Therefore, I’m calling NO DELAY TOMORROW. 
People in other counties that get more snow, say 5+ inches are more likely to get a delay.

Winter Storm?

Current Record: 4-2

Prediction:  This seems to be an especially tough one to call. Snow won’t start until HS students are on the buses, leaving an hour of light snowfall time before the elementary kids are picked up. This also keeps us from seeing what the weather will be like before making a call. If they wanted to let kids out early, let’s say around 11 and 12, that’s when the snow will be picking up. I don’t think it’s unrealistic to say that this could be a repeat of that last early dismissal, so fill up your cars before coming to school tomorrow morning.

As much as I’d like to say that we could get the kids in for what counts as a day, I think the county will play it safe and call off school tomorrow in the end. Perhaps there’s a chance the storm underperforms or starts much later than expected, or the roads are fine since the temp is above freezing, making us think we could have come in for a morning, but I don’t think they want busses getting stuck in the snow more than they don’t want to call off school for a nothing storm.

Odds are 50-50 I believe. I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

Delay tomorrow

Yeah, I know, PV doesn't have students in tomorrow, so if CV does as I predict, I'll call it a win.
1-3 inches, predicted all around...DELAY, and very certain.
Currently 2-2.

NO DELAY TOMORROW

Just not enough of a consistent threat. 80-20 NO DELAY

NOAA:  A slight chance of freezing rain and sleet before 10pm, then rain showers and sleet likely between 10pm and 4am, then rain showers likely after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.