10 years ago...a flood day...

The current setup of Hurricane Ida reminds me of 2011 when we had a closing due to flooding, given Tropical Storm Lee, which dropped 6.63” on this area after two days of almost 2” each, according to NOAA historical weather data.  My notes from that day read, “6 inches of rain, 3 river flood warnings – flooded roads – Closing!  But only 1 day, since once the rivers crest (or before), roads open back up”.  

Right now, we only have watches, and forecasts are calling for 3-6” total.  On the other hand, EPAWA is saying that this rain will drop very quickly and we are in an area that could get a major flood stage.  Horst seems to be downplaying it for our area a bit, but given PV’s local creeks and such, they might be impassable.  There are certainly good arguments to be made on either side, but, right now, predicting two days ahead of time at 51/49 odds that we will NOT have a closure. Bottom line is that it’s going to be a game time decision based on scouts checking out the road and creek conditions.  I would switch my position if we were assured 6+” of rain and if we had more rain beforehand, like Lee.  

Two days out?

Quick winter 2020-2021 update:
Winter 2020-2021
Delays: 2
Closings: 2
Virtual Closing: 1
Early Dismissals: 1
Chances: 11
My record: 7-4

Now, for the storm coming in...

Most sources are calling 4-8” with snow all day Thursday, with a transition to sleet/freezing rain in there, as well as some type of precipitation lasting into the morning. That being said, it’s “pretty much” a guarantee SCHOOLS WILL CLOSE THURSDAY. A major letdown would have to happen otherwise. 

As far as Friday goes, I’m pretty confident that SCHOOLS WILL CLOSE FRIDAY.  Why? Let’s say 6” of snow fall.  We have to clear that snow (and ice, etc.) and make the roads safe while it is still snowing.  I’m not saying it’s impossible, but in order to only have a delay Friday morning, the storm would have to underperform, end early, AND the back roads of PV would have to be cleared. 

Don't even ask about whether we'll have virtual days.  I'm already predicting human decisions based on weather predictions.  No need to predict secondary human decisions based on human decisions based on weather predictions.

Delay?

 While there’s certainly a chance of enough wintry mix to make it slick, I doubt it’s going to be enough, especially since the temperatures will be WELL above freezing in the morning.  Hence, NO DELAY TOMORROW, but still drive carefully in the rain.  Might be some slick spots

Another chance

 It’s pretty much across the board 1-3” overnight.  Quick call: DELAY THURSDAY

Delay Friday?

 While a delay is certainly possible if the sleet/freezing rain actually happens, and at the wrong time, the likelihoods just look pretty low for this to be impactful.  I don’t think the roads will be worse than Wednesday morning.  Therefore, I’m predicting NO DELAY FRIDAY. 

February Snow

Prediction:  

Tuesday: Closed (virtual day) 95% confident – additional 6 inches today and continuing snowfall Tuesday secure that.

Wednesday: Closed (virtual day) 70% confident – Even with the snow stopping Tuesday, back roads will need more time to clear, AND the relatively windy conditions will blow the snow and make those back roads even harder to traverse.  This could just be a delay if we get significantly less snow than expected and/or the winds don’t blow the snow.

Thursday: Normal Schedule (no delay) 50% confident – Winds could still be a problem, but given the full day of clearing opportunities on an above-freezing Wednesday, I think we’ll be ok.

Wintry Mix in the morning

At least a delay, perhaps a closing.  The main concern is the “light wintry mix” Tuesday morning.  Because of it being “light” and not 100% POP, this will be a game day decision.  Somebody’s going to go outside Tuesday morning and let us know how the roads are, but I suspect they’ll take the precaution of a delay so that the roads can be travelled on, salted, warmed up a little bit. 50-50 odds, but I’m calling TWO-HOUR DELAY. I wouldn’t be surprised if schools close, but I would be surprised if we don’t have a delay.