Pre-Holiday Break Cancellation?

I’m seeing really only a 10% chance of us not being in school tomorrow, though it might be closer of a call than expected.  All the typical sites are calling for rain to start in the morning commute time with temperatures above freezing, and nary a call of “freezing rain”, except from WGAL saying there will be a mix of rain and freezing rain.  I wish I could be more certain of this, but there’s plenty of caution touted by MU Weather Center.  All this being said, I’ll predict NO DELAY OR CLOSING TOMORROW.  There IS plenty of wild weather coming our way, and I think Kyle Elliot presents it best here: https://www.millersville.edu/weathercenter/forecasts/weather-discussion.php  Be careful on Friday.  

Thursday Freezing Rain?

Prediction:  Yikes, this one is truly a dice roll. Freezing rain doesn’t potentially start until after midnight and lasts until noonish…potentially.  I’m seeing overnight POPs of 30% to 70%.  I’d like to say it’s a game day decision, but I don’t think anyone wants to get caught in freezing rain that just happens to start when the busses do. I’m guessing they’ll call a delay tonight or tomorrow morning and then see what happens in the morning to determine delay vs. closure.  It’d be nice to get this day in, but I think the odds are that there will be something happening during the transportation time no matter what, so they’ll call a cancellation.  Might even be one of those cases where they call a cancellation and nothing happens…

All of this is to say…begrudgingly…I’ll predict a cancellation tomorrow, even though that feeds right into Sutherland’s hopes and dreams.    Not because the weather will be particularly dangerous, but dangerous enough.

 

Another Freezing Friday

 Current Record: 2-3

Prediction:  Let’s see if I can be wrong for one (hopefully) last time this year.  I’ll keep it short and sweet.  TWO-HOUR DELAY is my prediction.  There is pretty good consistency among the forecasters regarding the presence of freezing rain and sleet being over a trace, along with a winter weather advisory, however it should end early and roads should be passable by bussing time.

A delay MIGHT be called preemptively, but if there were a cancellation, it would be a morning decision.

Freezing Friday?

 Sorry I got your hopes up yesterday, but I’m seeing a lot of “little to no accumulation” along with acknowledgments that the roads are already warm with a high angle sun, so the roads really shouldn’t freeze. It’ll be too warm in the morning, and not precipitating or cold enough in the afternoon. Prediction: No change in schedules.

Prediction for Thursday Jan 19, 2022

 

Current Record: 2-1

A surprise storm.  Could it disappear as easily as it appeared?

On the closing side:

1-3 inches is pretty consistent, with travel warnings

Snow will still be falling during the typical travel times

It’ll be a Flexible Instruction Day if so

On the delay side:

Temps are above or around freezing

Snowfall predictions could change

It could underperform

On the regular schedule side:

Not much, just a small chance of it not happening.

Overall, I’m going to predict WE WILL NOT COME IN TO SCHOOL TOMORROW. 

Prediction for Jan 7th 2022

    We’ve got a classic range of predictions that optimistically predict 6 inches, and pessimistically predict 1 inch, but pretty consistently stopping before sunrise.  This usually makes me ride the fence regarding delay vs. closing.  This time, I’m going to lean very strongly toward SCHOOLS CLOSING TOMORROW.  Why?  MUWeather advises “The biggest impact from the snow will be to create a treacherous Friday morning commute. Since temperatures will be in the 20s while it's snowing, untreated roadways will become snow-packed and slippery in a short amount of time. If at all possible, avoid travel during the early-to-mid morning hours on Friday.” And they predict southern and eastern Lanco picking up 5-6”.  Additionally, EPAWA predicts a dry/powdery snow, which we PVers know will blow across the roads easily and consistently ‘round here.  

There’s still a chance that it won’t be that bad, but I’m not betting on it.  Take your laptop home, but set your alarm.