3/20/15

No early dismissal - not sticking to the roads, and it'll get harder as we go to stick

March 19th, 2015

If this storm were to occur in January, I would immediately call for a cancellation.  However, given the warmer temperatures, wet snow, and high sun angle, I don’t think the snow will really stick much and will generally be wet, not causing too many issues.  The only issue complicating this is the Winter Weather Advisory (though it’s not a warning).  One way they could go is to call a delay early, but see that the roads aren’t bad, and get everyone in for a day (maybe I just don’t want a snow day). Another way is that they don’t call a delay, notice that not much has fallen and the roads are ok, and get everyone in on regular schedule (I really DON’T want a snow day), with the option of an early dismissal.  Or they could just not risk it at all and call a snow day (please…no).  I usually get burned with wishful thinking, but I’m going to call A TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow, though the roads will be no problem in the morning. One weird way or another, I think weather might just win this one.

3/5/15

All forecasters are pretty much forecasting the same thing, but with my most trustworthy ally predicting less and is uncertain.  However, given that the snow will continue into Thursday, I highly doubt they’ll send students in when it is still snowing and roads crews are still attending to current snowfall.  Therefore, I’ll be sticking with my NO SCHOOL THURSDAY prediction. 

3/4/15

A delay is possible, but unlikely, considering the at or above freezing temperatures combined with non-freezing rain and well treated roads. Wednesday will be a NORMAL SCHEDULE.  Also, thinking ahead, Thursday is looking like NO SCHOOL, however, not all forecasters are predicting more than a coating, and it looks like it’s a super complicated storm, so I’ll have to update tomorrow.

3/3/15

An early dismissal IS POSSIBLE, but I’m going to bet on no early dismissal.  Even is there is an early dismissal, the roads should be pretty well taken care of.  But be careful anyway

3/2/15

Yeah, I'll call a delay for tomorrow.  There is plenty of time to clean up the roads, but last time I thought that, they delayed.  Oh wait, the other last time I thought that, they didn't delay.  Ugh...I have no real answer based on anything other than the truthiness of my gut.  DELAY tomorrow is predicted.

2/18/15 Snow & Wind Chill

If history is my guide, the -10 wind chill tomorrow won't delay schools, but the forecast -22 on Friday (NOAA) will close schools (see 1/6/14).  However, the threat of some snow tonight with heavy winds (and thus drifting) is real.  I'm not convinced there will be snow, but there are a lot of combinations here that would make us want to be safe.  So here go two predictions:

1. Two-Hour delay Thursday due to some snow/snow drifts/low wind chill combination (50/50)
2. School closed on Friday due to very low wind chills (80-20)

Let's see if I can use the past to predict the future.
Record this winter so far is an abysmal 11-8.

Tuesday Morning

yeah....there's a slight possibility, but overall, no issues on Tuesday morning (NO DELAY).  Just be aware while driving.  Timing is too early Monday night to impact us, especially this far south where less is expected.

Monday 2/9/15

Temperatures above freezing and a call for all rain give us no real chance for a delay Monday, plus any snow/ice that will occur Monday will be mostly to the North and later in the day, therefore I'm predicting two things:

1. NO DELAY Monday Morning
2. NO EARLY DISMISSAL Monday

Tuesday?  Currently debating between nothing and a delay...probably nothing, but will update tomorrow.

Prediction #1: Contrary to what certain STEM teacher/football coaches are saying, there will NOT be an early dismissal day today, even though it's getting colder and windier outside

Prediction #2: Yeah, negative wind chills tomorrow morning, but not enough for a delay or a closure. NO DELAY TOMORROW

Prediction #3: Monday?  No official prediction, but a delay on Monday seems reasonable...updates later

Delay Thursday?

I’ve been hearing a 50% chance of up to 0.5” of snow…That’s not enough for a delay. NO DELAY TOMORROW, though not impossible. 95-5 odds.

Super Bowl Treat???

Sorry for the late prediction, but I’m sticking to my pre-prediction on Twitter previously…TWO-HOUR DELAY TOMORROW.  Some are calling for not much at all, but I still think it will be dicey in the morning.  VERY small chance of closure, fair chance of no delay.

Delay Tomorrow?

I’m going to predict NO DELAY TOMORROW, though it’s definitely not out of the question.  I’m looking at 75-25 odds, since there’s a low 60% chance that we’ll even get anything, the biggest prediction is an inch, and it’s not really going to occur in the morning during the commute.

here's hoping my record breaks even. 

Tuesday

50/50 shot at a cancellation tomorrow.  Why? It looks like another 1-3 inches tonight, which is very similar to last night, probably producing the same amounts.  But why MIGHT we get canceled?  The wind. It’ll blow that light fluffy snow everywhere, plus there’s a chance at more snow.  Bottom line I’m changing my prediction to a TWO-HOUR DELAY TUESDAY.

Early Dismissal

Not going to happen.  The storm is not really hitting us and we're looking at scattered snow showers when the plows are out and working well.  There is also no more Winter Storm Warning.  So official prediction is NO EARLY DISMISSAL TODAY.  I might just downgrade tomorrow's cancellation prediction to a delay....updates later.

Winter Storm 2-Parter

I'll make 3 predictions here...
Lots and lots of speculation, etc. out there, people.  But I have a feeling that even if we don’t get as much as is expected, it will be timed just “right” so that we’ll get SCHOOL CANCELLED ON MONDAY, SCHOOL CANCELLED ON TUESDAY, AND A TWO-HOUR DELAY ON WEDNESDAY.  Why?  Well, we’ll get 1-3 inches overnight, and it will keep on snowing, making the roads not so easy to travel, so no school Monday.  Tuesday is essentially the same story, but with a lot more wiggle room, so I’ll call Tuesday off as well.  Wednesday though? Looks like we’ll have high winds with a very dry and light snow, which we know in farm country means some roads are impassable and even deeper than the actual snowfall.  Hence, a delay on Wednesday morning (which could turn into a closing, stay tuned).

Delay?

Well, since I've been giving too much credence to the idea that we can drive in snow and have been shown that peer pressure works in early dismissal giving, I'm going to call a TWO-HOUR DELAY tomorrow.  Plus, I hear there may be some freezing fog/rain overnight and Pequea is out in the sticks...or fields...May as well start flipping coins.

Wednesday 1-3 inches

So it might start earlier than previously thought (possibly as early as 10am). In that case, an early dismissal is POSSIBLE, but I'm not sure how likely.  Therefore, I'm going to stick with the NO EARLY DISMISSAL for tomorrow, but one can hope...As for Thursday delay?  maybe....we'll know more once we actually get the snow.

Wednesday Storm

Wednesday we’ll see snow, but no early dismissal.  Thursday a delay is possible.  Depends on how much snow we get. Will update tomorrow.

Ice Storm tonight into tomorrow means...

At LEAST a delay tomorrow.  It looks like there will be enough ice and sleet early enough that the roads (especially back roads, read: Pequea Valley) won’t be treated by the morning bus routes.  I wonder if there have been some phone calls to districts about not delaying or canceling that might influence a quicker closure.  So my final call is a reluctant NO SCHOOL TOMORROW, since I think we could probably get away with just a delay, but they’ll want to play it safe, and the roads probably won’t be safe when they actually make the call.  If I'm right, I'll be up 4-2 for the season.

Wind Chill Delay?

I've heard some commotion...but, no delay tomorrow.  It’ll be cold with wind chills down to -10, but not cold enough for a closing or a delay. Last year we closed for -15 to -20˚F wind chills. 

1-3 inches tomorrow

We’re only really getting 1-3 inches (I’m predicting closer to 1.5), and though the snow will stick to roads, it’ll start too late to impact bus travel in the morning and it’ll stop before we have to leave.  It’s not impossible for a closing, but I think it’s unlikely.  Therefore, I’m predicting a normal schedule tomorrow